Thursday, June 01, 2006

Spring Series 2006 Race 4 Race Results (not!!)

Turns out the race was cancelled yet again. The storms started pretty much as predicted about 5:00 pm. There were large storm cells that brought tornado watches to Surrounding Toronto areas. The cells were rumbling and flashing on the bluffs behind us as we prepped the boat to go out. Once the race was cancelled, and the rain cleared it looked as though it was safe to head out for a sail (since the boat was rigged any way why not!).

Got out into the lake and watched as a rather large cell started heading towards us spitting large bolts of lightning into the lake. We kept a close eye on and caught some good wind on the fringe of the cell for about 15 minutes.

Storm passed and so did the wind. Motored in to shore and hit the clubhouse.

There is always next Wednesday!

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Another Look at Wind

Took another look at some of the forecast. Seems as though we may get 10 knots tonight with a dying breeze around 9:00 and rain coming in. This all looks great on paper. Will see how it turns out!

The course layout for this wind is a direct windward leeward course for (origin mark:2) 1:2:1:2. If the winds shift the way they are predicted to we should start on starboard and maintain the starboard lifted tack as all the way up the leg. Which also means we should be on port tack for the downwind. This means we should gybe over soon after rounding the mark.

Spring Series 2006 Race 4 preparation Stage 3 (race day)

It is 12:22 pm local time. Rain is coming in from North East right now. There is little wind. Preparing for light to no wind tactics tonight. Will post the race or lack of race tomorrow.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Spring Series 2006 Race 4 preparation Stage 2

The jetstream has changed from what I expected but not in the direction I had anticipated. Still can't get a handle on the weather yet. Think I will have to wait till tomorrow and see what develops. accuweather extended detailed forecast is calling for 11 knot winds, whereas some of the other sources are calling for less than 10 knots which usually means 0-5 knots.

I will check back later tonight to see if any of the forecasts have changed.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Spring Series 2006 Race 4 preparation Stage 1

So far it is not looking good for Wednesday night. The official forecast:

South winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday Night
Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Quick peak at the accuweather forecast shows a pretty slow moving low pressure front moving across the Canada. The 48 hr shows a small budge over 48 hours. I should know a little more tomorrow. will check to see if the front has progressed further than expected. If it has there is hope that the wind might pick up at least enough to race.

The best scenario here is if the jetstream takes a nose dive. The front will come closer to Lake Ontario and should pick the winds up.

I can always be optimistic!

Good news is the boat GPS is now functional so now I can download races and overlay and analyze the data more accurately. I have been relying on my mental picture of the races to create the data for my maps and race result diagrams. I was pretty accurate when I downloaded race 3 and compared it to the posted version. General course sailed (with the exception of one, maybe 2 tacks or gybes, was on the money. What was really apparent was the huge lift and wind change before rounding mark 4. The revised exported GPS data is here and the original analysis is here for comparison. Another neat bit of visual data was the massive pre-race jockey for position data that is collected and displayed from the GPS. Very neat to see.